Climate change is water change, and we can only expect extreme weather events to continue to increase in frequency and extremity. Understanding that, however, makes it no less shocking when such storms materialize. And no less surprising when they materialize in a part of the country where we, our families, or our friends live.
Our thoughts are with all those impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. As rescue, relief and repair is still underway, our team can’t help but ask ourselves: in what small way could we have helped?
During Helene, one of the gauges above an Eastern Tennessee dam was washed out at a critical time for making decisions on evacuation and disaster management. These “hydro-blind” situations are stressful and have real potential consequences for human life.
So when the agency responsible for this dam reached out, we reconstructed what we would have forecasted: see the plot below. HydroForecast’s mean (dark blue line) and 50% confidence range (shaded blue) showed significant flow rises, providing guidance after the gauge (black) washed out.
Flows rose quickly, from around 2,000 CFS to an estimate of ~180, 000 CFS at their peak (estimated, not measured).
We at Upstream are committed to building better forecasts to help manage through extreme events. We will continue to explore ways for us to equip communities – especially in underserved areas that may not be well gauged or have operational forecasts – with the tools needed for safety and resilience.
We are excited to announce an opening for a Solutions Engineer for HydroForecast. If you or someone you know is passionate about climate tech and interested in joining our team in a cross-functional role please follow the link to the job posting for full details: https://jobs.upstream.tech/32215
Over the last few months our team has been steadily rolling out the newest version of the Hydroforecast Short-term model (ST-3) to our customers, providing more accurate forecasts for improved operational decision-making. We’re contacting customers individually as their models are deployed, so if you haven’t heard from us yet, you will soon!
In parallel, we’re scaling up our distributed modeling pipeline from individual watersheds to entire states and regions—allowing for more comprehensive forecasts across larger areas. We are currently partnering with The Nature Conservancy California to make reach-scale predictions across every river in California.
Additionally, we are now ingesting benchmark alternative forecasts to improve our model evaluations.
New seasonal model in development. Send us your feedback!
Looking ahead, we’re preparing to develop the next version of our seasonal model (SEA-3) with exciting updates on the horizon. We’d love to hear from you about how we can make seasonal forecasts even more useful for your work.
Water year 2024 ended on September 30 and we want to hear how it went for you! Did HydroForecast prove useful for your operational decisions? Are there additional features, dashboard displays, or services that you would find useful in your work?
Your feedback can help guide future updates to HydroForecast and better allow us to meet your needs! Please reach out at team@hydroforecast.com
We had a blast at Clean Currents in Portland, Oregon!
Earlier this month, Deandra, Conor and Laura attended Clean Currents annual meeting, talking with folks from around the globe about the benefits of AI hydrologic forecasting for utilities. A few highlights:
Check out our knowledge base to learn more about using our forecasts and dashboard. Please also reach out any time at team@hydroforecast.com with any questions, ideas, or feedback!
Cheers,
Alan & the HydroForecast Team